Update after Toledo City Council District 4 election: actual turnout: 1,429.
Today we learned that 61 voters have voted early in-person in the Toledo City Council District 4 race to fill a vacancy.
What does that tell us about the total likely turnout on Tuesday (Election Day)? Nothing definitive, but we can extrapolate.
In the Ohio general elections of 2010 and 2014, about 4.6 percent of the total vote was cast early in-person.
Therefore, assuming District 4 is a microcosm of the great state of Ohio, that means 1,326 votes will be cast. (Sixty-one is 4.6 percent of 1,326). That's 4% of the 32,528 registered voters.
I think that's a reasonable prediction, even though it's about 500 votes lower than the prediction I made in an internal office poll earlier today (before I knew what the early vote count was).
The turnout in the last special election in District 4 (May, 2011) was 2 percent, or 683 voters.
That election was to replace former district councilman Michael Ashford who had moved on to the General Assembly. The candidates were Paula Hicks-Hudson, Terry Shankland, and Alfonso Narvaez. It was a lopsided matchup and pretty unexciting, and the turnout reflected that.
The election we have Tuesday is much better contested with four more closely matched candidates.